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ΤΟ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΟ ΤΣΟΥΝΑΜΙ ΤΗΣ ΙΑΠΩΝΙΑΣ

March 15, 2011 Leave a comment










Σεισμοί, τσουνάμια, πυρηνικές εκρήξεις, κι ο θάνατος δεκάδων χιλιάδων στην Ιαπωνία φαντάζουν σαν κάποιος να ξεκίνησε τον Αρμαγεδώνα…
…οι οικονομικές συνέπειες και οι προεκτάσεις της βιβλικής καταστροφής είναι βέβαιο πώς οδηγούν την Ιαπωνία σε ακόμα πιό βαθειά και παρατεταμένη ύφεση και κατευθείαν στα χέρια των κεντρικών τραπεζών, καθώς το παγκόσμιο καζίνο των τυπογράφων χαρτονομισμάτων ετοιμάζεται να ρίξει στην αγορά  “χαρτοπόλεμο” 15 τρισεκατομμυρίων φρεσκοτυπωμένων γιέν….

14 Reasons Why The Economic Collapse Of Japan Has Begun


The economic collapse of Japan has begun.  The extent of the devastation is now becoming clear and many are now projecting that this will be the most expensive natural disaster in modern human history.  The tsunami that struck Japan on March 11th swept up to 6 miles inland, destroying virtually everything in the way.  Countless thousands were killed and entire communities were totally wiped out.  So how does a nation that is already drowning in debt replace dozens of cities and towns that have suddenly been destroyed?  Many in the mainstream media are claiming that the economy of Japan will bounce right back from this, but they are wrong.  The tsunami decimated thousands of square miles.  The loss of homes, cars, businesses and personal wealth is almost unimaginable.  It is going to take many years to rebuild the roads, bridges, rail systems, ports, power lines and water systems that were lost.  There are going to be a significant number of Japanese insurance companies and financial institutions that are going to be totally wiped out as a result of this great tragedy.  Of course in the days ahead the Japanese people will band together and work hard to rebuild the nation, but the truth is that it is impossible to “bounce right back” from such a massive loss of wealth, assets and infrastructure.
Just think about what happened after Hurricane Katrina.  Did the economy of New Orleans bounce right back?  No, there are some areas of New Orleans today that still look like war zones.
Well, this disaster is much worse.
The truth is that this is going to be one of the defining moments in the history of Japan.  Hundreds of miles along the coast of Japan have been absolutely devastated.  Authorities are finding it difficult to even get food and water into some areas at this point.
Even before this great tragedy Japan was one of the nations that was on the verge of a national economic collapse.  Their economy had been in the doldrums for over a decade and their national debt was well over 200 percent of GDP.  Now the Japanese economy has experienced a shock from which it may never truly recover.
The Bank of Japan is already flooding the Japanese economy with new yen, and so we may indeed see some impressive “economic growth” statistics at the end of the year.  But just because lots more yen are being passed around does not mean that the Japanese economy is in better shape.
The truth is that a tsunami of yen is not going to undo the damage that the tsunami of water did. 
 A massive amount of Japanese wealth was wiped out by this disaster.  An economy that was already teetering on the brink is now very likely going to plunge into oblivion.
It is fine to be optimistic, but the cold, hard reality of the situation is that this is a knockout blow for the Japanese economy.  The extent of the devastation is just too great.  This truly is a complete and total nightmare.
The following are 14 reasons why the economic collapse of Japan has now begun….
#1 The Bank of Japan has announced that they have decided to flood the Japanese economy with 15 trillion yen.  That is the equivalent of roughly $183 billion dollars.  This is going to provide needed liquidity in the short-term, but it is also going to set Japan on a highly inflationary course.
#2 Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock average declined by more than 6 percent on Monday.  As the full extent of the damage becomes apparent more declines are likely.
#3 Oil refineries all over Japan have been severely damaged or destroyed.  For example, six refineries that combine to process 31 percent of the oil for Japan have been totally shut down at least for now.
#4 The damage to roads, bridges, ports and rail systems is estimated to be in the billions of dollars.  The damage done to power lines and water systems is almost unimaginable.  It is going to take many years to rebuild the infrastructure of Japan.
#5 Right now the flow of goods and services in many areas of northern Japan has been reduced to a crawl, and this is likely to remain the case for quite some time.
#6 Many cities and towns along the east coast of Japan have essentially been completely destroyed.
#7 Japan’s nuclear industry is essentially dead in the water at this point.  Even if there is not a full-blown nuclear meltdown, the events that have transpired already have frightened people enough to cause a massive public outcry against nuclear power in Japan.
#8 Japan is going to need even more oil and natural gas in the long run to replace lost nuclear energy production.  Prior to this crisis, Japan derived 29 percent of its electricity from nuclear power.
#9 Japan is the second largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, but that is about to change.  Japan currently has about $882 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds and they are going to have to liquidate much of that in order to fund the rebuilding of their nation.
#10 Many factories in Japan are closing down at least temporarily.  For example, Nissan has shut down four factories and Sony has shut down six factories.
#11 Toyota has shut down all production at its factories in Japan until at least March 16th.
#12 A substantial number of Japanese financial institutions and insurance companies are absolutely going to be devastated by this nightmare.
#13 Japan’s budget deficit was already 9 percent of GDP even before this tragedy.  Now they are going to have to borrow lots more money to fund the rebuilding effort.
#14 Japan’s national debt was already well over 200 percent of GDP even before this tragedy.  How much farther into the danger zone can they possibly go?
Sadly, as the economy of Japan goes down it is going to have a huge affect on the rest of the world as well.  For example, Japan is no longer going to be able to buy up huge amounts of U.S. Treasuries.  So who is going to pick up the slack?  Will our government officials beg China to lend us even more money?  Will the Federal Reserve just “buy” even more of our government debt?
Right now there are more questions than there are answers, but what is clear is that the Japanese economy has just been dealt an incapacitating blow.  Hopefully this tragedy will bring out the best in the Japanese people, but no matter how resilient they are, the truth is that this is something that no nation would be able to bounce back from quickly.
Let us hope that the economic damage from this tragedy will be contained and will not spread to the rest of the world.  The global economy is already in enough trouble, and hopefully this tragedy will not cause a cascade of economic failures to sweep the globe.

ΣΤΑ 1350 ΔΟΛΛΑΡΙΑ Ο ΧΡΥΣΟΣ

October 6, 2010 Leave a comment

ΣΤΑ 1350 ΔΟΛΛΑΡΙΑ Ο ΧΡΥΣΟΣ  ΣΥΝΕΧΙΖΕΙ ΝΑ ΤΡΑΒΑΕΙ ΤΗΝ ΑΝΗΦΟΡΑ…
…εν μέσω του παγκόσμιου πολέμου χαρτονομισμάτων που μαίνεται.

2000-2010. Μέσα σε 10 χρόνια, το χαρτονόμισμα -fiat- δολλάριο έχασε 7 φορές την αξία του σε σχέση με τον χρυσό.
700% δηλαδή, και απλά μια υπενθύμιση σε όσους θεωρούσαν οτι η εποχή και τα “λογιστικά κέρδη” με τις πάσης φύσης φούσκες και με τα τυπογραφεία χαρτονομισμάτων της FED και της ΕΚΤ στο φούλ, θα κατάφερναν να απομειώσουν τις πραγματικές και διαχρονικές αξίες.

Παλαιότερες σχετικές δημοσιεύσεις εδω , εδω, εδω και search στα λήμματα gold, gold bullion, χρυσός, δολλάριο, ΤτΕ (Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος).

(Επίσης, πέρα απο τα σχετικά δημοσιεύματα στο προτεινόμενο ανωτέρω λινκ για την ΤτΕ, και λόγω της “έκρηξης” Σημίτη-ΠΑΣΟΚ” για ενδεχόμενη “εξεταστική” της περιόδου 2000-2004, αξίζει μια δεύτερη ανάγνωση η δημοσίευση The CDS Planet όπου δίνονται  απαντήσεις για τα μαγειρέματα της κας Αντιγόνης Λουδιάδη της Goldman Sachs με την κυβέρνηση Σημίτη, εποχή που με αυτές τις ταρζανιές ξεκίνησε το μεγάλο δράμα της ελεγχόμενης και μοιραίας πτώχευσης, καθώς και του asset stripping της Ελλάδας που βρίσκεται σε εξέλιξη…)

Ακολουθεί αναδημοσίευση για τις πρόσφατες κινήσεις της Κεντρικής τράπεζας της Ιαπωνίας και τον κολασμένο χορό του φρεσκοτυπωμένου χαρτονομίσματος απο το λίνκ
Global Competitive Debasement; Currency Wars Begin; Message of Gold

The Bank of Japan is leading the way to new measures of stimulus insanity with a plan to buy a wide variety of assets including real estate investment trusts (REITs) and asset backed commercial paper (ABCP).

Please consider Factbox: BOJ to set up fund to buy JGBs, corporate debt

The Bank of Japan on Tuesday decided to set up, as a temporary measure, a 5 trillion yen ($59.9 billion) pool of funds to buy assets ranging from government bonds to corporate bonds.

Following are key points about the new measure:

— The programme will consist of a fund totaling 5 trillion yen to buy assets anew as well as the existing 30-trillion-yen fixed-rate fund-supply tool that will hold designated assets as collateral.

— The programme is a temporary measure aimed at encouraging declines in long-term interest rates and risk premiums.

— The fund is designed to cover Japanese government bonds, treasury bills, commercial paper (CP), asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP), corporate bonds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITs).

— The BOJ will not apply its self-imposed ceiling on its outright JGB buying to the JGBs to be purchased with the new fund.

— The BOJ will aim to bring the balance of assets purchased using the new fund to 5 trillion yen in one year, with about 3.5 trillion yen assigned for JGBs and treasury bills and about one trillion yen for CP, ABCP and corporate bonds.

What About Paintings and Shellfish?

Why not paintings, equities, and shellfish? Given enough time, perhaps it comes to that.

Meanwhile, I am pleased to report that the global recovery has gained so much traction that numerous countries feel obliged to join the US/Japan sponsored stimulus party.

Global Competitive Debasement

Bloomberg reports BOJ May Have Acted First in Renewed Round of Action

The unexpected decision by the Japanese central bank yesterday to drop its interest rate to “virtually zero” and expand its balance sheet follows the U.S. Federal Reserve’s move toward more unconventional easing. Bank of England officials will consider further stimulus tomorrow, while the central banks of Australia, Canada and New Zealand are among those now holding fire on further interest-rate increases.

The renewed push for easier monetary policy comes as the International Monetary Fund warns growth in advanced economies is falling short of its forecasts ahead of its annual meetings in Washington this week. The dilemma for policy makers is that their actions may do little to revive growth and end up roiling currency markets.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa may not be alone for long in taking action and Daiwa Institute of Research argues he’s now engaged in a “vicious spiral” of monetary easing with the Fed as both compete to bolster their economies.

“The irony is that the Fed is creating all this liquidity with the hope that it will revive the U.S. economy. It is doing nothing for the U.S. economy and causing chaos for the rest of the world,” Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning professor at New York’s Columbia University, said today in New York.

The ECB will be forced to postpone tighter policy as European exports fade and investors continue to fret about peripheral euro-area economies such as Portugal and Ireland, said Silvio Peruzzo, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Inc. in London.

“The ECB’s exit strategy is fully on, but the business cycle will turn against them,” said Peruzzo. “The communication will then be adjusted to consider downside risks greater than what they have anticipated.”

The ECB last week stepped up its government bond purchases as the cost of insuring against default on Portuguese government debt surged to a record and Irish bond spreads soared to euro- era highs.

Another risk is that the use of unconventional monetary policy is viewed as an effort to weaken currencies to boost exports, rising competitive devaluations and protectionist responses, said Eric Chaney, chief economist at AXA Group in Paris. Japan, Switzerland and Brazil are among the countries that have already intervened in markets to restrain their exchange rates.

“This is close to a currency war,” said Chaney, a former official at the French France Ministry. “It’s not through exchange-rate manipulation, but through monetary policies.”

Currency Wars

This is not “close to a currency war” this IS a currency war.

While I have had numerous differences of opinion with Joseph Stiglitz, he is absolutely correct when he says “The irony is that the Fed is creating all this liquidity with the hope that it will revive the U.S. economy. It is doing nothing for the U.S. economy and causing chaos for the rest of the world.”

Moreover what Stiglitz says about Bernanke and the Fed, applies equally to the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the central banks of Canada and Australia as well.

Message of Gold

The competitive currency debasement can be seen in the price of gold and silver.

None of these central bank measures are doing a damn thing for the real economy (in the US or anywhere else), but it sure has ignited a fire in gold and silver.